Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 2:1series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spiritloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 8 games
Clockwerk
sayuw · 3 games
Medusaoften banned
Smiling Knight · 3 games
Tusk
sayuw · 3 games
Chen
EcNart · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
Smiling Knight · 2 games
Viperoften banned
Petushara · 2 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Smiling Knight · 2 games
Team Spirit
Iooften banned
so bad · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Yatoro · 1 game
Chaos Knightoften banned
Collapse · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
Miposhka · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 1 game
Legion Commanderoften banned
Collapse · 1 game
Puckoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 1 game
Witch Doctor
Miposhka · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
141 picks · 318 bans
Mars
140 picks · 255 bans
Void Spirit
123 picks · 176 bans
Earth Spirit
121 picks · 105 bans
Phoenix
111 picks · 119 bans
Keeper of the Light
92 picks · 164 bans
Nyx Assassin
90 picks · 318 bans
Rubick
89 picks · 45 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:18
Team Empire 45%Team Spirit 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Empire in 1:13:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingSmiling Knight
UrsaYatoro
Nature's ProphetPetushara
UnderlordCollapse
PhoenixEcNart
BatriderTORONTOTOKYO
Earth Spiritsayuw
Windrangerso bad
52% · 29 games
OracleMiposhka
Game 2prediction correct14:26
Team Empire 47%Team Spirit 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingSmiling Knight
MorphlingYatoro
BloodseekerPetushara
Queen of PainTORONTOTOKYO
ChenEcNart
GrimstrokeCollapse
Clockwerksayuw
Nyx Assassinso bad
52% · 13 games
Keeper of the LightMiposhka
Game 3prediction missed33:36
Team Empire 46%Team Spirit 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Empire in 1:05:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaSmiling Knight
TerrorbladeYatoro
Keeper of the LightEcNart
Death ProphetTORONTOTOKYO
Dark SeerPetushara
MarsCollapse
Earth Spiritsayuw
Skywrath Mageso bad
45% · 10 games
Crystal MaidenMiposhka
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 62%
Series resultTeam Empire 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3