?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 0:2
series probability
5%95%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 27 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ghostik · 25 games
44%
Lina
Linaoften banned
kiyotaka · 21 game
57%
Bane
Bane
Kaori · 18 games
44%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
lightless · 17 games
53%
Luna
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 16 games
69%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
VANSKOR · 14 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 14 games
71%

Team Spirit

Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 19 games
84%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 17 games
76%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Miposhka · 16 games
63%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Collapse · 16 games
81%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 16 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
60%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 14 games
71%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
362 picks · 534 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
322 picks · 193 bans
47%
Bane
Bane
318 picks · 247 bans
59%
Weaver
Weaver
305 picks · 675 bans
55%
Monkey King
Monkey King
261 picks · 754 bans
58%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
249 picks · 401 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
232 picks · 150 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
231 picks · 319 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 74%
Hero pool strength60% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total95% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:36
Team Empire 18%Team Spirit 82%
The model gave 82% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 36:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunalightless
45% · 150 games44% · 92 games
Phantom AssassinYatoro
Phantom Assassin
Void Spirit
Void SpiritIceberg
48% · 265 games51% · 173 games
InvokerTORONTOTOKYO
Invoker
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerGhostik
48% · 72 games57% · 103 games
Sand KingCollapse
Sand King
Bane
Bane[T]SA
54% · 182 games55% · 224 games
WeaverMiposhka
Weaver
Disruptor
DisruptorKaori
50% · 146 games48% · 223 games
Monkey KingMira
Monkey King
Game 2prediction correct11:33
Team Empire 19%Team Spirit 81%
The model gave 81% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 30:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladelightless
60% · 102 games47% · 110 games
RazorYatoro
Razor
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainIceberg
55% · 96 games48% · 71 game
Outworld DestroyerCollapse
Outworld Destroyer
Batrider
BatriderGhostik
51% · 98 games36% · 150 games
Dragon KnightTORONTOTOKYO
Dragon Knight
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin[T]SA
59% · 217 games43% · 98 games
Shadow ShamanMiposhka
Shadow Shaman
Bane
BaneKaori
57% · 84 games45% · 168 games
ClockwerkMira
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 95%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2