?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 1:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Uniquewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Petushara · 7 games
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
sayuw · 7 games
57%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
sayuw · 7 games
43%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Smiling Knight · 6 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
sayuw · 5 games
20%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Smiling Knight · 5 games
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
EcNart · 4 games
75%

Team Unique

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
333 picks · 671 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
316 picks · 385 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
265 picks · 465 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
244 picks · 204 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
216 picks · 118 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
214 picks · 319 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
212 picks · 631 bans
60%
Phoenix
Phoenix
211 picks · 243 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Team Unique
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct2:28
Team Empire 48%Team Unique 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Team Unique in 30:17.
Game 2prediction missed32:9
Team Empire 48%Team Unique 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Team Empire in 36:54.
Game 3prediction correct13:31
Team Empire 48%Team Unique 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Team Unique in 37:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unique · 52%
Series resultTeam Unique 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3