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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Uniqueloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
70%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 9 games
78%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 9 games
78%
Tusk
Tusksignature
sayuw · 9 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Petushara · 8 games
63%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
sayuw · 8 games
50%

Team Unique

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
445 picks · 193 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
390 picks · 579 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
389 picks · 881 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
371 picks · 206 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
345 picks · 323 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
324 picks · 233 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
291 picks · 394 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
287 picks · 395 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 39%
Hero pool strength55% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total61% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:29
Team Empire 61%Team Unique 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Unique in 37:32.
Game 2prediction correct26:4
Team Empire 61%Team Unique 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 28:29.
Game 3prediction correct19:5
Team Empire 61%Team Unique 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 33:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 61%
Series resultTeam Empire 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3