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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Trident Clanloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
70%
Tusk
Tusksignature
sayuw · 9 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Petushara · 8 games
63%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
sayuw · 8 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 6 games
67%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Smiling Knight · 6 games
50%

Trident Clan

Mirana
Mirana
SoulEater · 4 games
25%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 4 games
25%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Munkushi~ · 4 games
75%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
antoha · 3 games
33%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
antoha · 3 games
0%
Lion
Lion
SoulEater · 3 games
0%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
antoha · 3 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Pikachu · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
398 picks · 1011 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
372 picks · 607 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
369 picks · 190 bans
48%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
363 picks · 365 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
317 picks · 506 bans
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
311 picks · 681 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
308 picks · 225 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
269 picks · 150 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 23%
Hero pool strength57% Team Empire
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:10
Team Empire 66%Trident Clan 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 29:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSmiling Knight
56% · 30 games51% · 27 games
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
Terrorblade
Invoker
Invokerkiyotaka
53% · 29 games62% · 27 games
DoomPikachu
Doom
Slardar
SlardarPetushara
46% · 22 games36% · 40 games
AxeCorrupted
Axe
Snapfire
Snapfiresayuw
49% · 81 game52% · 79 games
PhoenixSoulEater
Phoenix
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorVANSKOR
48% · 22 games42% · 11 games
Hoodwinkantoha
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct25:3
Team Empire 66%Trident Clan 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 22:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSmiling Knight
41% · 69 games51% · 131 game
Wraith KingMunkushi~
Wraith King
Doom
DoomPetushara
53% · 39 games55% · 51 game
InvokerPikachu
Invoker
Void Spirit
Void Spiritkiyotaka
40% · 142 games53% · 91 game
TidehunterCorrupted
Tidehunter
Mirana
Miranasayuw
52% · 77 games51% · 91 game
Nyx Assassinantoha
Nyx Assassin
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorVANSKOR
58% · 40 games43% · 3 games
HoodwinkSoulEater
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 76%
Series resultTeam Empire 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2