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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
V-Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Petushara · 8 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
sayuw · 8 games
38%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
sayuw · 7 games
57%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Smiling Knight · 7 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
sayuw · 5 games
20%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Smiling Knight · 5 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
EcNart · 4 games
50%

V-Gaming

Lion
Lion
ArrOw · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
laise · 5 games
80%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
100%
Rubick
Rubick
ArrOw · 3 games
33%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Dodren · 3 games
100%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ArrOw · 3 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 3 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
laise · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
431 picks · 960 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
408 picks · 591 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
356 picks · 653 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
338 picks · 605 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
313 picks · 276 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
262 picks · 368 bans
61%
Tusk
Tusk
254 picks · 178 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
246 picks · 345 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 54%
Hero pool strength55% V-Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:37
Team Empire 52%V-Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 54:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSmiling Knight
50% · 26 gameslittle data
Faceless VoidTA2000
Faceless Void
Windranger
Windrangerkiyotaka
39% · 23 games51% · 104 games
Marslaise
Mars
Sand King
Sand KingPetushara
49% · 40 games48% · 37 games
Storm SpiritDodren
Storm Spirit
Tusk
Tusksayuw
49% · 89 games51% · 49 games
GrimstrokeMalady
Grimstroke
Undying
UndyingVANSKOR
57% · 73 games50% · 61 game
PhoenixArrOw
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct28:29
Team Empire 54%V-Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 39:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
59% · 47 games25% · 4 games
Anti-MageTA2000
Anti-Mage
Leshrac
Leshrackiyotaka
51% · 23 games41% · 13 games
WindrangerDodren
Windranger
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterPetushara
57% · 3 games49% · 55 games
Pangolierlaise
Pangolier
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansayuw
56% · 46 games41% · 42 games
LionArrOw
Lion
Abaddon
AbaddonVANSKOR
52% · 32 games46% · 37 games
UndyingMalady
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 56%
Series resultTeam Empire 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2