FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Essenceloss 0:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Ivorywin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Essence
Zeus
Varizh · 4 games
Dark Willow
dalul · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
db- · 2 games
Jakiro
Varizh · 2 games
Mirana
Varizh · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
db- · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
dalul · 1 game
Dark Seer
db- · 1 game
Ivory
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Rupido · 5 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
Rubick
Dric~ · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
Ken · 4 games
Lion
Dric~ · 4 games
Hoodwink
Dric~ · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Dric~ · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
468 picks · 397 bans
Phoenix
468 picks · 581 bans
Batrider
450 picks · 556 bans
Clockwerk
432 picks · 534 bans
Gyrocopter
417 picks · 773 bans
Tiny
415 picks · 463 bans
Lion
400 picks · 232 bans
Magnus
400 picks · 874 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% Ivory
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Team Essence
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Team Essence 67%Ivory 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Essence — the game was taken by Ivory.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Essence · 67%
Series resultIvory 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1