DreamLeague Season 24. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Essencewin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PPlsReportTimberloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Essence
Dragon Knightoften banned
db- · 2 games
Jakiro
Varizh · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
db- · 1 game
Clockwerk
dalul · 1 game
Dark Willow
dalul · 1 game
Mirana
Varizh · 1 game
Sniperoften banned
dalul · 1 game
Underlordoften banned
db- · 1 game
PlsReportTimber
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
351 picks · 341 bans
Jakiro
349 picks · 258 bans
Hoodwink
348 picks · 401 bans
Pangolier
326 picks · 497 bans
Snapfire
296 picks · 264 bans
Sven
291 picks · 305 bans
Windranger
281 picks · 388 bans
Dragon Knight
279 picks · 456 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 43%
Hero pool strength58% PlsReportTimber
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Team Essence
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Essence 58%PlsReportTimber 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Essence — the game was taken by Team Essence.
Game 2prediction correct
Team Essence 58%PlsReportTimber 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Essence — the game was taken by Team Essence.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Essence · 58%
Series resultTeam Essence 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2