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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Essenceloss 1:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The MongolZwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Essence

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
NARMAN · 3 games
67%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Armel · 3 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Ponyo · 3 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 3 games
100%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Raven · 3 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Raven · 2 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Armel · 2 games
50%

The MongolZ

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 12 games
25%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Wonder'boy · 10 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Wonder'boy · 10 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Hishge · 9 games
67%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Hishge · 9 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JG · 7 games
29%
Doom
Doomoften banned
JG · 7 games
43%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Bob · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
530 picks · 728 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
430 picks · 316 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
429 picks · 703 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
410 picks · 402 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
383 picks · 877 bans
57%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
382 picks · 664 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
381 picks · 1016 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
368 picks · 509 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% Team Essence
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Team Essence
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:26
Team Essence 54%The MongolZ 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Essence — the game was taken by Team Essence in 59:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinRaven
45% · 96 games48% · 233 games
Dragon KnightBob
Dragon Knight
Tiny
TinyMac
47% · 305 games53% · 136 games
DoomJG
Doom
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPonyo
47% · 52 games62% · 84 games
EarthshakerDJ
Earthshaker
Game 2prediction missed9:42
Team Essence 56%The MongolZ 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Essence — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 55:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaAkashi
55% · 52 games55% · 54 games
Nature's ProphetDJ
Nature's Prophet
Tiny
TinyMac
44% · 198 games51% · 93 games
DawnbreakerJG
Dawnbreaker
Marci
MarciPonyo
45% · 73 games51% · 176 games
Ember SpiritBob
Ember Spirit
Game 3prediction missed16:39
Team Essence 54%The MongolZ 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Essence — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 46:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetAkashi
51% · 42 games51% · 77 games
DoomJG
Doom
Kunkka
KunkkaMac
42% · 58 games40% · 42 games
Ember SpiritBob
Ember Spirit
Disruptor
DisruptorPonyo
61% · 46 games59% · 27 games
Keeper of the LightDJ
Keeper of the Light
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Essence · 60%
Series resultThe MongolZ 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3