?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Essenceloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Trailer Park Boyswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Essence

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mac · 5 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
NARMAN · 3 games
67%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Armel · 3 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Ponyo · 3 games
33%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Ponyo · 3 games
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 3 games
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 2 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Ponyo · 2 games
50%

Trailer Park Boys

Jakiro
Jakiro
Se · 2 games
0%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 2 games
0%
Tinker
Tinkeroften banned
Se · 2 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
NARMAN · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
CHYuan · 1 game
100%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
CHYuan · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
CHYuan · 1 game
100%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
eleven · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
538 picks · 756 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
439 picks · 322 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
434 picks · 709 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
412 picks · 404 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
397 picks · 693 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
392 picks · 883 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
388 picks · 1040 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 514 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% Team Essence
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Trailer Park Boys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:6
Team Essence 50%Trailer Park Boys 50%
The model gave 50% on Trailer Park Boys — the game was taken by Team Essence in 32:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAkashi
44% · 127 games42% · 67 games
Phantom Assassin423
Phantom Assassin
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMac
52% · 114 games45% · 65 games
Centaur Warrunnereleven
Centaur Warrunner
Mirana
MiranaPonyo
63% · 107 games49% · 103 games
Ember SpiritCHYuan
Ember Spirit
46% · 52 games
WarlockSe
Warlock
53% · 61 game
WindrangerNARMAN
Windranger
Game 2prediction missed18:30
Team Essence 51%Trailer Park Boys 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Essence — the game was taken by Trailer Park Boys in 40:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordAkashi
52% · 59 games52% · 53 games
Terrorblade423
Terrorblade
Monkey King
Monkey KingMac
55% · 136 games43% · 42 games
LeshracCHYuan
Leshrac
Disruptor
DisruptorPonyo
57% · 62 games40% · 65 games
Marseleven
Mars
44% · 24 games
Bounty HunterNARMAN
Bounty Hunter
47% · 73 games
Crystal MaidenSe
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction missed8:27
Team Essence 50%Trailer Park Boys 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Essence — the game was taken by Trailer Park Boys in 30:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusAkashi
57% · 175 games45% · 107 games
Phantom Assassin423
Phantom Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMac
50% · 163 games48% · 69 games
Tidehuntereleven
Tidehunter
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPonyo
51% · 50 games50% · 156 games
Ember SpiritCHYuan
Ember Spirit
43% · 3 games
RingmasterNARMAN
Ringmaster
45% · 53 games
ChenSe
Chen
Model check result
Model favoriteTrailer Park Boys · 51%
Series resultTrailer Park Boys 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3