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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1w Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 55 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 45 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 38 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 35 games
89%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 30 games
57%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 28 games
61%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 27 games
78%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 27 games
56%

1w Team

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 22 games
41%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fishman · 20 games
45%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
63%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 19 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
58%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 14 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
497 picks · 689 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
449 picks · 709 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
430 picks · 419 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
418 picks · 326 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
384 picks · 960 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
382 picks · 886 bans
59%
Batrider
Batrider
381 picks · 435 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
367 picks · 510 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total93% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:8
Team Falcons 79%1w Team 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 27:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSkiter
54% · 72 games43% · 207 games
SvenMunkushi~
Sven
Dark Seer
Dark SeerATF
60% · 202 games46% · 291 game
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
Ember Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
51% · 263 games44% · 116 games
Night StalkerSSS
Night Stalker
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
59% · 198 games47% · 250 games
Weaverswedenstrong
Weaver
Tiny
TinyCr1t-
50% · 329 games46% · 200 games
JakiroHduo
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct25:29
Team Falcons 78%1w Team 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 52:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSkiter
53% · 63 games48% · 85 games
Phantom AssassinMunkushi~
Phantom Assassin
Monkey King
Monkey KingMalr1ne
47% · 157 games52% · 222 games
TinyChira JUNIOR
Tiny
Clinkz
ClinkzCr1t-
50% · 25 games51% · 148 games
BristlebackSSS
Bristleback
Mars
MarsATF
48% · 171 game58% · 74 games
Night Stalkerswedenstrong
Night Stalker
Jakiro
JakiroSneyking
44% · 145 games53% · 32 games
SilencerHduo
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 93%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2