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ESSENCE II · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1w Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Cr1t- · 31 game
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Skiter · 31 game
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Cr1t- · 24 games
54%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 24 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
61%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
73%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 21 game
62%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
62%

1w Team

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
swedenstrong · 30 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 25 games
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 24 games
38%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 23 games
57%
Venomancer
Venomancer
Rein · 21 game
57%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
мистер мораль · 18 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
swedenstrong · 18 games
61%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
мистер мораль · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
518 picks · 370 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
374 picks · 221 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
372 picks · 654 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
337 picks · 350 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
323 picks · 342 bans
59%
Windranger
Windranger
320 picks · 236 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
311 picks · 442 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
294 picks · 333 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:9
Team Falcons 60%1w Team 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 30:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSkiter
52% · 36 games42% · 76 games
Timbersaw33
Timbersaw
Razor
RazorATF
55% · 70 games60% · 42 games
LinaPure~
Lina
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMalr1ne
47% · 93 games57% · 190 games
Ember Spiritbzm
Ember Spirit
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
46% · 52 games46% · 34 games
GrimstrokeAri
Grimstroke
Dark Willow
Dark WillowCr1t-
40% · 161 game58% · 70 games
UndyingWhitemon
Undying
Game 2prediction correct34:24
Team Falcons 59%1w Team 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 48:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierATF
49% · 333 games57% · 128 games
KezPure~
Kez
Lifestealer
LifestealerSkiter
45% · 118 games54% · 265 games
Centaur Warrunner33
Centaur Warrunner
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMalr1ne
43% · 107 games55% · 41 game
Linabzm
Lina
Pugna
PugnaSneyking
49% · 156 games51% · 335 games
TuskAri
Tusk
Dark Willow
Dark WillowCr1t-
41% · 232 games57% · 177 games
RingmasterWhitemon
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 71%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2