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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
96%4%
probability at match start · final 2:0
9Pandasloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 44 games
59%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 41 game
88%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 41 game
66%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 39 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 35 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Cr1t- · 28 games
61%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 28 games
64%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
73%

9Pandas

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
erase · 30 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
lupsione · 27 games
33%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Solo · 25 games
52%
Lion
Lion
lupsione · 22 games
55%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 21 game
62%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 18 games
39%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
laise · 18 games
61%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Solo · 17 games
41%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
516 picks · 803 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
515 picks · 627 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
493 picks · 498 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
468 picks · 566 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
433 picks · 368 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
430 picks · 1011 bans
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
414 picks · 780 bans
56%
Lich
Lich
393 picks · 211 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 46%
Hero pool strength59% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total96% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:14
Team Falcons 83%9Pandas 17%
The model gave 83% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 33:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorATF
36% · 147 games54% · 111 games
Monkey KingV-Tune
Monkey King
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerSkiter
little data50% · 125 games
PuckSerenada
Puck
Magnus
MagnusMalr1ne
56% · 138 games60% · 28 games
Underlordlaise
Underlord
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterCr1t-
47% · 45 gameslittle data
RingmasterSolo
Ringmaster
Warlock
WarlockSneyking
50% · 36 games52% · 102 games
Hoodwinklupsione
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct39:26
Team Falcons 84%9Pandas 16%
The model gave 84% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 30:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSkiter
49% · 125 games54% · 251 game
GyrocopterV-Tune
Gyrocopter
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
47% · 435 games49% · 163 games
Marslaise
Mars
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterCr1t-
55% · 45 games58% · 59 games
SlardarSerenada
Slardar
Viper
ViperATF
54% · 68 games50% · 32 games
UndyingSolo
Undying
Jakiro
JakiroSneyking
45% · 92 games45% · 260 games
Batriderlupsione
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 96%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2