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BLAST Slam III · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 0:1
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Aurora Gamingwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 42 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 40 games
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 32 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 30 games
60%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 26 games
62%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
63%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Skiter · 23 games
52%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 22 games
82%

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 20 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 19 games
42%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 18 games
39%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Mira · 18 games
61%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Nightfall · 17 games
59%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Jabz · 15 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kiyotaka · 14 games
36%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
463 picks · 658 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
440 picks · 422 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
347 picks · 719 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
320 picks · 644 bans
55%
Muerta
Muerta
312 picks · 183 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
309 picks · 506 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
304 picks · 609 bans
52%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
297 picks · 133 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:47
Team Falcons 62%Aurora Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 44:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaSkiter
48% · 97 games42% · 37 games
AbaddonNightfall
Abaddon
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMalr1ne
49% · 196 games51% · 253 games
BeastmasterTORONTOTOKYO
Beastmaster
Slardar
SlardarATF
55% · 73 games50% · 143 games
Puckkiyotaka
Puck
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightCr1t-
45% · 86 games51% · 107 games
RingmasterMira
Ringmaster
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
52% · 134 games53% · 46 games
BanePanto
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 75%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1