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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 1:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Aurora Gamingloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ATF · 30 games
60%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
78%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 20 games
65%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 20 games
70%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 18 games
72%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Malr1ne · 17 games
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skiter · 16 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Cr1t- · 16 games
44%

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 33 games
48%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 33 games
45%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 32 games
66%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Mira · 29 games
62%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 27 games
70%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 26 games
69%
Puck
Puckoften banned
kiyotaka · 24 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
626 picks · 310 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
541 picks · 549 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
402 picks · 1120 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
381 picks · 203 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
363 picks · 614 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
353 picks · 392 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
350 picks · 160 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
349 picks · 268 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total86% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:17
Team Falcons 73%Aurora Gaming 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 45:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
52% · 222 games46% · 217 games
SvenNightfall
Sven
Doom
DoomATF
53% · 157 games55% · 143 games
Void SpiritMikoto
Void Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
48% · 294 games49% · 239 games
MarsTORONTOTOKYO
Mars
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
48% · 185 games49% · 290 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Tusk
TuskSneyking
54% · 321 game47% · 290 games
JakiroOli
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 86%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1