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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Azure Rayloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 25 games
84%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
89%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Malr1ne · 17 games
59%
Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 17 games
76%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 17 games
82%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 16 games
88%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 16 games
56%
Lina
Linasignature
Malr1ne · 16 games
69%

Azure Ray

Luna
Lunasignature
lou · 23 games
61%
Lion
Lion
fy · 19 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Faith_bian · 18 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Faith_bian · 16 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 16 games
81%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 16 games
94%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
fy · 15 games
53%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
天命 · 15 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
359 picks · 312 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
324 picks · 302 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
320 picks · 482 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
265 picks · 368 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
248 picks · 457 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
247 picks · 314 bans
56%
Techies
Techies
247 picks · 165 bans
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
244 picks · 139 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 64%
Hero pool strength55% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total55% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:31
Team Falcons 55%Azure Ray 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 41:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomATF
55% · 210 games46% · 72 games
Anti-Magelou
Anti-Mage
Slark
SlarkSkiter
56% · 97 games57% · 107 games
LeshracOri
Leshrac
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
47% · 237 games42% · 199 games
MagnusFaith_bian
Magnus
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
55% · 78 games46% · 238 games
Tinyfy
Tiny
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
45% · 109 games53% · 115 games
Enigma天命
Enigma
Game 2prediction correct35:11
Team Falcons 54%Azure Ray 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 40:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSkiter
56% · 81 game55% · 80 games
Troll Warlordlou
Troll Warlord
Mars
MarsATF
40% · 120 games51% · 414 games
Ember SpiritOri
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
48% · 249 games52% · 187 games
Dragon KnightFaith_bian
Dragon Knight
Rubick
RubickCr1t-
51% · 358 games47% · 155 games
Hoodwinkfy
Hoodwink
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSneyking
50% · 85 games48% · 57 games
Jakiro天命
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2