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ESSENCE II · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BETBOOM TEAMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Cr1t- · 31 game
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Skiter · 31 game
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Cr1t- · 23 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 23 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
65%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
73%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 21 game
62%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
62%

BETBOOM TEAM

Windranger
Windrangersignature
Save- · 32 games
63%
Kez
Kezsignature
Kiritych · 30 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Save- · 26 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 24 games
75%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
gpK~ · 23 games
65%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Kataomi · 23 games
61%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Kataomi · 23 games
78%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 21 game
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
517 picks · 367 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
370 picks · 211 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
369 picks · 657 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
332 picks · 354 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
325 picks · 355 bans
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 445 bans
55%
Windranger
Windranger
313 picks · 231 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
293 picks · 333 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head6 – 3
Model total53% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:12
Team Falcons 49%BETBOOM TEAM 51%
The model gave 51% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 39:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaSkiter
49% · 149 games47% · 125 games
TimbersawMieRo
Timbersaw
Axe
AxeATF
47% · 282 games51% · 161 game
Shadow FiendKiritych
Shadow Fiend
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMalr1ne
50% · 86 games55% · 206 games
SlardargpK~
Slardar
Enchantress
EnchantressCr1t-
45% · 228 games47% · 310 games
HoodwinkSave-
Hoodwink
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
57% · 69 games65% · 12 games
Elder TitanKataomi
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed34:28
Team Falcons 49%BETBOOM TEAM 51%
The model gave 51% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 46:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaSkiter
51% · 161 game49% · 193 games
Centaur WarrunnerMieRo
Centaur Warrunner
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMalr1ne
43% · 126 games51% · 161 game
Shadow FiendKiritych
Shadow Fiend
Axe
AxeATF
47% · 385 games55% · 206 games
SlardargpK~
Slardar
Enchantress
EnchantressCr1t-
47% · 253 games47% · 310 games
HoodwinkKataomi
Hoodwink
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
56% · 96 games55% · 151 game
RingmasterSave-
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 53%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2