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Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:2
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Dudley boyswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Lina
Linasignature
Malr1ne · 7 games
86%
Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 7 games
86%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 6 games
100%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 6 games
100%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 5 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ATF · 5 games
80%
Wraith King
Wraith King
Skiter · 5 games
100%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Sneyking · 4 games
100%

Dudley boys

Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 5 games
100%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Yuma · 4 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Adzantick · 4 games
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
9Class · 3 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
9Class · 3 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Xakoda · 2 games
100%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Adzantick · 2 games
100%
Lion
Lion
9Class · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
276 picks · 379 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
246 picks · 112 bans
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
220 picks · 489 bans
59%
Muerta
Muerta
213 picks · 318 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
207 picks · 306 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
194 picks · 414 bans
59%
Kunkka
Kunkka
187 picks · 470 bans
61%
Pangolier
Pangolier
186 picks · 351 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 78%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:17
Team Falcons 61%Dudley boys 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 44:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSkiter
48% · 44 games57% · 78 games
LinaAdzantick
Lina
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
51% · 94 games53% · 105 games
Templar AssassinYuma
Templar Assassin
Mars
MarsATF
51% · 87 games52% · 9 games
SlardarMinD_ContRoL
Slardar
Weaver
WeaverCr1t-
55% · 58 games41% · 55 games
Lion9Class
Lion
Phoenix
PhoenixSneyking
43% · 150 games50% · 186 games
TuskXakoda
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed14:49
Team Falcons 63%Dudley boys 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Dudley boys in 33:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSkiter
53% · 84 games54% · 142 games
UrsaYuma
Ursa
Lina
LinaMalr1ne
47% · 83 games53% · 296 games
Primal BeastAdzantick
Primal Beast
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
48% · 98 games55% · 41 game
Wraith KingMinD_ContRoL
Wraith King
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSneyking
50% · 239 games48% · 120 games
Centaur Warrunner9Class
Centaur Warrunner
Tiny
TinyCr1t-
52% · 194 games43% · 99 games
GrimstrokeXakoda
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction missed17:40
Team Falcons 63%Dudley boys 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Dudley boys in 35:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSkiter
52% · 100 games56% · 150 games
Naga SirenYuma
Naga Siren
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
52% · 108 games51% · 28 games
Lone DruidMinD_ContRoL
Lone Druid
Sand King
Sand KingATF
33% · 8 games50% · 240 games
Primal BeastAdzantick
Primal Beast
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
51% · 252 games43% · 123 games
Centaur Warrunner9Class
Centaur Warrunner
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
49% · 167 games49% · 94 games
GrimstrokeXakoda
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 72%
Series resultDudley boys 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3