Riyadh Masters 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:1series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Execrationloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 45 games
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 34 games
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 34 games
Bounty Huntersignature
Cr1t- · 29 games
Dragon Knight
Skiter · 25 games
Tinyoften banned
Skiter · 24 games
Jakiro
Sneyking · 23 games
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 23 games
Execration
Terrorbladeoften banned
Akashi · 14 games
Batridersignature
Shanks · 10 games
Magnussignature
Tino- · 10 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 9 games
Marci
Tino- · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
Shanks · 8 games
Lichsignature
cml · 8 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Shanks · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
483 picks · 522 bans
Shadow Shaman
467 picks · 508 bans
Ringmaster
408 picks · 213 bans
Tusk
376 picks · 367 bans
Jakiro
369 picks · 250 bans
Terrorblade
367 picks · 783 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 530 bans
Storm Spirit
340 picks · 506 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:41
Team Falcons 44%Execration 56%
The model gave 56% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 38:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenSkiter
Nature's ProphetPalos
BristlebackATF
Bounty HunterShanks
PangolierMalr1ne
Dark SeerTino-
Shadow ShamanCr1t-
Enchantresscml
DazzleSneyking
Game 2prediction missed33:16
Team Falcons 45%Execration 55%
The model gave 55% on Execration — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 31:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenSkiter
Queen of PainPalos
BeastmasterMalr1ne
MarsTino-
PangolierATF
Shadow DemonShanks
PugnaSneyking
Axecml
DisruptorCr1t-
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2