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BLAST Slam II · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 1:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 41 game
66%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 39 games
56%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 36 games
94%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 34 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 32 games
66%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Cr1t- · 26 games
62%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
73%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 24 games
79%

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 26 games
62%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 15 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
tOfu · 15 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 15 games
60%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Watson · 14 games
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
43%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ace · 13 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
469 picks · 398 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
466 picks · 574 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
450 picks · 552 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
429 picks · 529 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
414 picks · 771 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 458 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
403 picks · 232 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
398 picks · 868 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 55%
Hero pool strength61% Team Falcons
Head-to-head8 – 4
Model total69% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:24
Team Falcons 65%Gaimin Gladiators 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 53:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
59% · 166 games51% · 215 games
SniperQuinn
Sniper
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
54% · 274 games46% · 268 games
Templar AssassinWatson
Templar Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
50% · 276 games47% · 377 games
BeastmasterAce
Beastmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
53% · 250 games42% · 52 games
Bounty HuntertOfu
Bounty Hunter
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCr1t-
51% · 308 games47% · 362 games
Crystal MaidenSeleri
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 69%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1