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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 47 games
49%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 43 games
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 36 games
56%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
Cr1t- · 28 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 27 games
44%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Skiter · 26 games
46%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 25 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Sneyking · 22 games
55%

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 30 games
73%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 23 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Malady · 22 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 20 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 18 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 16 games
63%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Quinn · 16 games
56%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Ace · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
502 picks · 496 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
435 picks · 582 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
406 picks · 195 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
318 picks · 565 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
281 picks · 392 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
278 picks · 161 bans
48%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
269 picks · 567 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
266 picks · 478 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head5 – 7
Model total54% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:9
Team Falcons 50%Gaimin Gladiators 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 31:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
49% · 351 game55% · 263 games
BristlebackAce
Bristleback
Viper
ViperATF
50% · 48 games50% · 314 games
BeastmasterQuinn
Beastmaster
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
45% · 378 games52% · 118 games
RazorWatson
Razor
Abaddon
AbaddonSneyking
45% · 134 games46% · 122 games
RingmastertOfu
Ringmaster
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanCr1t-
56% · 162 games52% · 256 games
JakiroMalady
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed16:31
Team Falcons 50%Gaimin Gladiators 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 32:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierATF
48% · 348 games45% · 97 games
AbaddonWatson
Abaddon
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMalr1ne
50% · 157 games54% · 281 game
Monkey KingQuinn
Monkey King
Ursa
UrsaSkiter
44% · 113 games56% · 284 games
BristlebackAce
Bristleback
Lion
LionCr1t-
46% · 131 game53% · 223 games
PucktOfu
Puck
Jakiro
JakiroSneyking
50% · 330 games49% · 194 games
RingmasterMalady
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction correct13:30
Team Falcons 50%Gaimin Gladiators 50%
The model gave 50% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 26:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSkiter
48% · 194 games51% · 118 games
Nature's ProphetWatson
Nature's Prophet
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMalr1ne
48% · 339 games51% · 276 games
BristlebackQuinn
Bristleback
Slardar
SlardarATF
44% · 129 games54% · 144 games
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Centaur Warrunner
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterCr1t-
53% · 115 games55% · 234 games
MuertatOfu
Muerta
Silencer
SilencerSneyking
46% · 161 game50% · 166 games
RingmasterMalady
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 54%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3