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Riyadh Masters 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 47 games
51%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 36 games
44%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 34 games
59%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
Cr1t- · 29 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 25 games
44%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Skiter · 24 games
46%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Sneyking · 23 games
52%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 23 games
65%

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 33 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 28 games
54%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Malady · 26 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 26 games
46%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ace · 20 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 20 games
65%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Quinn · 20 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 19 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
478 picks · 519 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
461 picks · 493 bans
48%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
380 picks · 208 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
361 picks · 361 bans
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
353 picks · 763 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 525 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
339 picks · 220 bans
46%
Kunkka
Kunkka
325 picks · 516 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 49%
Hero pool strength50% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head4 – 7
Model total58% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:16
Team Falcons 43%Gaimin Gladiators 57%
The model gave 57% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 32:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSkiter
48% · 152 games59% · 224 games
DoomWatson
Doom
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
52% · 176 games43% · 131 game
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Centaur Warrunner
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
47% · 236 games53% · 248 games
Ember SpiritQuinn
Ember Spirit
Undying
UndyingSneyking
47% · 89 games51% · 177 games
Nature's ProphettOfu
Nature's Prophet
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanCr1t-
51% · 273 games47% · 146 games
WarlockMalady
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct9:34
Team Falcons 45%Gaimin Gladiators 55%
The model gave 55% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 32:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSkiter
49% · 124 games52% · 205 games
Templar AssassinWatson
Templar Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterATF
58% · 220 games40% · 107 games
UnderlordAce
Underlord
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
54% · 255 games53% · 131 game
Void SpiritQuinn
Void Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowCr1t-
53% · 236 games50% · 413 games
BatridertOfu
Batrider
Pugna
PugnaSneyking
44% · 109 games43% · 88 games
SilencerMalady
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2