?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:1
GamerLegionloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 27 games
63%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 27 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Skiter · 25 games
76%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 23 games
57%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 22 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 22 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
68%

GamerLegion

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
RCY · 26 games
54%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Bignum · 24 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 23 games
48%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 22 games
41%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 21 game
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 20 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 20 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Speeed · 19 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
540 picks · 331 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
505 picks · 590 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 370 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
407 picks · 221 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
389 picks · 285 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
343 picks · 880 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
341 picks · 306 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
337 picks · 853 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 37%
Hero pool strength57% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total91% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:37
Team Falcons 76%GamerLegion 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 41:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
47% · 100 games65% · 24 games
Lone DruidGhost
Lone Druid
Ursa
UrsaSkiter
53% · 123 games47% · 232 games
Void SpiritRCY
Void Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
44% · 195 games57% · 96 games
LargoFayde
Largo
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCr1t-
46% · 89 games52% · 82 games
VenomancerSpeeed
Venomancer
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernSneyking
57% · 21 game47% · 94 games
GrimstrokeBignum
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct0:0
Team Falcons 76%GamerLegion 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 37:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
50% · 132 games62% · 47 games
ClinkzGhost
Clinkz
Luna
LunaSkiter
38% · 57 games54% · 112 games
LycanFayde
Lycan
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
46% · 230 games52% · 332 games
PuckRCY
Puck
Silencer
SilencerSneyking
43% · 125 games61% · 69 games
VenomancerSpeeed
Venomancer
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCr1t-
45% · 121 game49% · 105 games
GrimstrokeBignum
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction correct0:1
Team Falcons 76%GamerLegion 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 25:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaSkiter
43% · 111 games53% · 103 games
LycanFayde
Lycan
Mars
MarsATF
49% · 254 games48% · 178 games
MuertaGhost
Muerta
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
46% · 322 games47% · 338 games
PuckRCY
Puck
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCr1t-
52% · 159 games57% · 72 games
VenomancerSpeeed
Venomancer
Lich
LichSneyking
58% · 50 games51% · 205 games
RubickBignum
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 91%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3