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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 46 games
83%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 37 games
76%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 37 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 37 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 33 games
79%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 32 games
81%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 31 game
77%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 28 games
61%

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
KJ · 33 games
48%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
4nalog · 22 games
64%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 19 games
63%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 17 games
71%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 17 games
41%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 15 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
KJ · 15 games
47%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
KJ · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
480 picks · 211 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
442 picks · 613 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
399 picks · 739 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
385 picks · 156 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
381 picks · 537 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
370 picks · 312 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 717 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
332 picks · 544 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 36%
Hero pool strength61% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total92% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:22
Team Falcons 78%Heroic 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 42:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSkiter
47% · 110 games50% · 85 games
WeaverK1
Weaver
Razor
RazorATF
44% · 86 games54% · 214 games
Pangolier4nalog
Pangolier
Zeus
ZeusNine
42% · 52 games51% · 23 games
ViperDavai
Viper
Chen
ChenSneyking
49% · 89 games61% · 86 games
EarthshakerScofield
Earthshaker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCr1t-
50% · 104 games46% · 33 games
Winter WyvernKJ
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct29:5
Team Falcons 79%Heroic 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 30:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSkiter
57% · 46 games52% · 146 games
SvenK1
Sven
Monkey King
Monkey KingNine
50% · 66 games48% · 77 games
Earth Spirit4nalog
Earth Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerATF
49% · 207 games45% · 98 games
RazorDavai
Razor
Chen
ChenSneyking
55% · 78 games41% · 163 games
PhoenixKJ
Phoenix
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
44% · 170 games62% · 83 games
EarthshakerScofield
Earthshaker
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 92%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2