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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 47 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 28 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 25 games
76%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 24 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 23 games
70%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 22 games
64%
Razor
Razoroften banned
ATF · 22 games
59%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 21 game
81%

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 25 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 25 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Scofield · 19 games
58%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Scofield · 18 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 15 games
67%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
K1 · 14 games
79%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 14 games
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
357 picks · 329 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
357 picks · 480 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
325 picks · 468 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
310 picks · 597 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
289 picks · 160 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
285 picks · 344 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
263 picks · 429 bans
48%
Batrider
Batrider
247 picks · 239 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total88% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:19
Team Falcons 75%Heroic 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 30:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorATF
47% · 127 games58% · 161 game
AlchemistParker
Alchemist
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMalr1ne
51% · 194 games53% · 52 games
VisageDavai
Visage
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSkiter
47% · 246 games45% · 114 games
Earth Spirit4nalog
Earth Spirit
Pugna
PugnaSneyking
48% · 114 games52% · 302 games
BatriderScofield
Batrider
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
50% · 236 games50% · 288 games
PhoenixKJ
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct28:13
Team Falcons 73%Heroic 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 42:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSkiter
49% · 194 games48% · 263 games
LunaParker
Luna
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMalr1ne
57% · 47 games58% · 80 games
Earth Spirit4nalog
Earth Spirit
Slark
SlarkATF
50% · 39 games52% · 46 games
DawnbreakerDavai
Dawnbreaker
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
46% · 199 games48% · 220 games
LionScofield
Lion
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
44% · 192 games55% · 62 games
OmniknightKJ
Omniknight
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 88%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2