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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 43 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 41 game
66%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 40 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 38 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 35 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Cr1t- · 28 games
61%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
73%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 25 games
60%

Heroic

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 30 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 23 games
74%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 19 games
58%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Scofield · 19 games
63%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 17 games
71%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 16 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Scofield · 16 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
515 picks · 785 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
506 picks · 608 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
494 picks · 510 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
472 picks · 572 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
441 picks · 373 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
431 picks · 998 bans
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
421 picks · 781 bans
56%
Lich
Lich
392 picks · 211 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 61%
Hero pool strength55% Team Falcons
Head-to-head6 – 2
Model total74% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:25
Team Falcons 59%Heroic 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 44:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSkiter
44% · 131 game50% · 197 games
BristlebackYuma
Bristleback
Tiny
TinyMalr1ne
45% · 380 games58% · 104 games
Earthshaker4nalog
Earthshaker
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderATF
52% · 14 games61% · 121 game
EnigmaWisper
Enigma
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterCr1t-
56% · 96 games41% · 145 games
ZeusKJ
Zeus
Phoenix
PhoenixSneyking
45% · 320 games55% · 374 games
ClockwerkScofield
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct46:22
Team Falcons 62%Heroic 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 34:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanSkiter
57% · 88 games53% · 106 games
Lina4nalog
Lina
Razor
RazorMalr1ne
52% · 202 games45% · 198 games
BeastmasterWisper
Beastmaster
Magnus
MagnusATF
51% · 245 games48% · 17 games
MeepoYuma
Meepo
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterCr1t-
47% · 72 games49% · 280 games
ClockwerkScofield
Clockwerk
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
50% · 245 games48% · 251 game
GyrocopterKJ
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 74%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2