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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 53 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 42 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 40 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 36 games
89%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 32 games
59%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 29 games
62%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 27 games
78%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 26 games
54%

Heroic

Muerta
Muerta
Scofield · 27 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 26 games
73%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 25 games
60%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Wisper · 21 game
71%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 20 games
55%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 20 games
65%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 17 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Davai · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
519 picks · 732 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
480 picks · 471 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
477 picks · 772 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
448 picks · 364 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
420 picks · 513 bans
49%
Magnus
Magnus
420 picks · 1037 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
408 picks · 932 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
390 picks · 540 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Team Falcons
Head-to-head7 – 2
Model total76% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:8
Team Falcons 63%Heroic 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 33:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
50% · 402 games49% · 349 games
MorphlingYuma
Morphling
Timbersaw
TimbersawMalr1ne
47% · 282 games53% · 490 games
Dragon Knight4nalog
Dragon Knight
Mars
MarsATF
44% · 236 games59% · 96 games
TidehunterWisper
Tidehunter
Muerta
MuertaCr1t-
45% · 324 games57% · 165 games
MiranaScofield
Mirana
Tusk
TuskSneyking
50% · 305 games48% · 449 games
PhoenixKJ
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct32:13
Team Falcons 63%Heroic 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 32:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
48% · 220 games43% · 115 games
Phantom AssassinYuma
Phantom Assassin
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMalr1ne
46% · 59 games62% · 35 games
Huskar4nalog
Huskar
Mars
MarsATF
43% · 126 games57% · 70 games
TidehunterWisper
Tidehunter
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterCr1t-
51% · 93 games50% · 64 games
Shadow ShamanScofield
Shadow Shaman
Tusk
TuskSneyking
52% · 185 games52% · 399 games
ClockwerkKJ
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 76%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2