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BLAST Slam IV · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ATF · 38 games
63%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 25 games
76%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 23 games
74%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
70%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 20 games
65%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 20 games
60%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 18 games
72%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 17 games
65%

Heroic

Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 23 games
57%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
55%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 21 game
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 19 games
58%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 18 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 17 games
82%
Bane
Bane
KJ · 16 games
44%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 16 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
715 picks · 346 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
597 picks · 628 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
499 picks · 255 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
411 picks · 1171 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
410 picks · 254 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
407 picks · 687 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
394 picks · 405 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
353 picks · 397 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)81% vs 62%
Hero pool strength56% Team Falcons
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total83% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:8
Team Falcons 68%Heroic 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 45:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
45% · 115 games54% · 355 games
GyrocopterYuma
Gyrocopter
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
46% · 446 games51% · 352 games
BatriderWisper
Batrider
Pangolier
PangolierATF
47% · 453 games61% · 34 games
ViperDavai
Viper
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
44% · 235 games53% · 370 games
JakiroKJ
Jakiro
Ringmaster
RingmasterCr1t-
50% · 310 games53% · 448 games
TuskScofield
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct37:12
Team Falcons 70%Heroic 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 42:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaSkiter
45% · 199 games50% · 150 games
AbaddonYuma
Abaddon
Mars
MarsATF
50% · 251 game48% · 122 games
LeshracWisper
Leshrac
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
50% · 181 game48% · 278 games
PangolierDavai
Pangolier
Chen
ChenSneyking
59% · 186 games51% · 131 game
ClockwerkScofield
Clockwerk
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageCr1t-
49% · 34 games51% · 170 games
PugnaKJ
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 83%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2