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Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 7 games
86%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 5 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ATF · 5 games
80%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Malr1ne · 5 games
80%
Tusk
Tusk
Cr1t- · 5 games
100%
Mars
Mars
ATF · 4 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Sneyking · 4 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Malr1ne · 4 games
100%

Level UP

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 16 games
69%
Silencer
Silencer
MiLAN · 12 games
58%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Daxak · 12 games
58%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Lorenof · 12 games
83%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 11 games
91%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Lorenof · 11 games
64%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
OwnedMe · 10 games
70%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
swedenstrong · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
269 picks · 367 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
236 picks · 110 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
214 picks · 477 bans
60%
Muerta
Muerta
208 picks · 316 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
204 picks · 295 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
194 picks · 397 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
185 picks · 348 bans
51%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
185 picks · 153 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 63%
Hero pool strength58% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:22
Team Falcons 74%Level UP 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 42:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMalr1ne
52% · 56 games51% · 28 games
Phantom AssassinFocus
Phantom Assassin
Wraith King
Wraith KingSkiter
50% · 35 games53% · 110 games
Keeper of the LightStojkov
Keeper of the Light
Mars
MarsATF
46% · 40 games40% · 112 games
Centaur WarrunnerdEsire
Centaur Warrunner
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
52% · 149 games53% · 123 games
Dark WillowDavai
Dark Willow
Pugna
PugnaSneyking
55% · 93 games
Game 2prediction correct34:9
Team Falcons 71%Level UP 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 28:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSkiter
49% · 108 games51% · 104 games
Keeper of the LightStojkov
Keeper of the Light
Lina
LinaMalr1ne
46% · 58 games51% · 111 games
Naga SirenFocus
Naga Siren
Mars
MarsATF
45% · 77 games53% · 99 games
Dark SeerDavai
Dark Seer
Chen
ChenSneyking
47% · 43 games54% · 195 games
Primal BeastdEsire
Primal Beast
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCr1t-
52% · 223 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 85%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2