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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 48 games
69%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 46 games
76%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 41 game
73%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 39 games
72%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 33 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 31 game
81%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 31 game
74%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 30 games
73%

LGD Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
niu · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niu · 19 games
32%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Setsu · 16 games
56%
Lion
Lion
Pyw · 15 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 15 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Pyw · 15 games
73%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 14 games
43%
Weaver
Weaversignature
shiro · 13 games
85%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
385 picks · 658 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
320 picks · 368 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
315 picks · 450 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
313 picks · 351 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
307 picks · 576 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
300 picks · 187 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
291 picks · 208 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
282 picks · 104 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 37%
Hero pool strength61% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total89% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:11
Team Falcons 75%LGD Gaming 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 39:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerSkiter
45% · 89 games61% · 102 games
Ursashiro
Ursa
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerATF
52% · 374 games51% · 123 games
Keeper of the LightEcho
Keeper of the Light
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalr1ne
53% · 290 games45% · 382 games
Pangolierniu
Pangolier
Snapfire
SnapfireCr1t-
44% · 127 games55% · 328 games
TinyPyw
Tiny
Phoenix
PhoenixSneyking
48% · 277 games47% · 222 games
Enchantressy`
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct32:10
Team Falcons 75%LGD Gaming 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 26:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
53% · 128 games56% · 70 games
Linashiro
Lina
Slark
SlarkATF
59% · 67 games51% · 109 games
Beastmasterniu
Beastmaster
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
57% · 6 games48% · 67 games
Earth SpiritEcho
Earth Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixSneyking
48% · 175 games53% · 123 games
HoodwinkPyw
Hoodwink
Snapfire
SnapfireCr1t-
39% · 94 games44% · 101 game
Sveny`
Sven
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 89%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2