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Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MoneyMakersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 5 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ATF · 5 games
80%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Malr1ne · 5 games
80%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Cr1t- · 4 games
75%
Wraith King
Wraith King
Skiter · 4 games
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Sneyking · 3 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Sneyking · 3 games
100%
Spectre
Spectreoften banned
Skiter · 3 games
100%

MoneyMakers

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 14 games
43%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 9 games
67%
Techies
Techies
Bignum · 9 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Egor · 9 games
33%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
CeMaTheSlayeR · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 8 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Bignum · 8 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
259 picks · 325 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
250 picks · 112 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
221 picks · 226 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
216 picks · 482 bans
61%
Phoenix
Phoenix
210 picks · 291 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
200 picks · 397 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
188 picks · 447 bans
58%
Muerta
Muerta
186 picks · 268 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 48%
Hero pool strength63% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:15
Team Falcons 73%MoneyMakers 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 35:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaSkiter
56% · 43 games49% · 150 games
Templar AssassinLukas
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
47% · 95 games55% · 121 game
LinaEgor
Lina
Mars
MarsATF
47% · 63 games53% · 129 games
Spirit BreakerCeMaTheSlayeR
Spirit Breaker
Pugna
PugnaSneyking
47% · 102 games51% · 83 games
MuertaBignum
Muerta
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
45% · 180 games
Game 2prediction correct20:6
Team Falcons 74%MoneyMakers 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 23:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
50% · 67 games51% · 43 games
LifestealerLukas
Lifestealer
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
48% · 80 games51% · 124 games
LinaEgor
Lina
Spectre
SpectreSkiter
52% · 54 games43% · 107 games
Centaur WarrunnerBignum
Centaur Warrunner
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
51% · 168 games53% · 119 games
PugnaCeMaTheSlayeR
Pugna
Chen
ChenSneyking
52% · 24 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 87%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2