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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 0:2
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ATF · 31 game
65%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
74%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 19 games
79%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 19 games
58%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 19 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Malr1ne · 17 games
71%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 17 games
65%
Sven
Svensignature
Skiter · 17 games
65%

MOUZ

Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 41 game
51%
Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 37 games
65%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
yamich · 30 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 29 games
66%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 27 games
74%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Crystallis · 21 game
62%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 21 game
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
BOOM · 20 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
678 picks · 329 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
572 picks · 587 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
446 picks · 232 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
403 picks · 1155 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
382 picks · 656 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
367 picks · 256 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
351 picks · 915 bans
46%
Warlock
Warlock
348 picks · 156 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)81% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% Team Falcons
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total84% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:21
Team Falcons 71%MOUZ 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by MOUZ in 42:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
UnderlordATF
54% · 67 games50% · 352 games
Dragon KnightCrystallis
Dragon Knight
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
52% · 254 games52% · 459 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
47% · 320 games54% · 137 games
SlardarBOOM
Slardar
Jakiro
JakiroSneyking
52% · 288 games44% · 77 games
DazzleSeleri
Dazzle
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
48% · 169 games47% · 73 games
Grimstrokeyamich
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction missed14:19
Team Falcons 71%MOUZ 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by MOUZ in 35:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
51% · 256 games48% · 452 games
Dragon KnightCrystallis
Dragon Knight
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
49% · 361 game52% · 433 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Ursa
UrsaATF
55% · 204 games44% · 156 games
TidehunterBOOM
Tidehunter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
49% · 313 games47% · 282 games
Shadow Demonyamich
Shadow Demon
Tusk
TuskSneyking
52% · 441 game53% · 252 games
PugnaSeleri
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 84%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2