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DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:2
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MOUZwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ATF · 36 games
69%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 34 games
74%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 27 games
70%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 26 games
58%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 23 games
78%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 22 games
68%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 22 games
73%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 62 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 48 games
54%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 44 games
57%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 38 games
66%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 38 games
66%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 34 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 33 games
67%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Crystallis · 32 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
566 picks · 701 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
510 picks · 349 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
486 picks · 664 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
450 picks · 545 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
419 picks · 145 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
406 picks · 191 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
379 picks · 520 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
374 picks · 516 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 66%
Hero pool strength55% Team Falcons
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total72% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:27
Team Falcons 62%MOUZ 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by MOUZ in 39:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaSkiter
45% · 21 game52% · 91 game
InvokerMidOne
Invoker
Timbersaw
TimbersawMalr1ne
46% · 173 games51% · 247 games
GyrocopterCrystallis
Gyrocopter
Viper
ViperATF
50% · 24 games45% · 47 games
BrewmasterBOOM
Brewmaster
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
56% · 65 games52% · 131 game
ChenSeleri
Chen
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
52% · 288 games44% · 55 games
Nyx Assassinyamich
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct27:6
Team Falcons 64%MOUZ 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 19:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSkiter
57% · 109 games56% · 19 games
BroodmotherMidOne
Broodmother
Razor
RazorMalr1ne
49% · 12 games44% · 37 games
BrewmasterBOOM
Brewmaster
Night Stalker
Night StalkerATF
51% · 91 game40% · 55 games
WeaverCrystallis
Weaver
Marci
MarciSneyking
56% · 150 games50% · 212 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Lion
LionCr1t-
45% · 77 games49% · 116 games
Shadow DemonSeleri
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction missed9:27
Team Falcons 64%MOUZ 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by MOUZ in 29:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSkiter
60% · 76 games42% · 164 games
LeshracMidOne
Leshrac
Timbersaw
TimbersawMalr1ne
49% · 73 games50% · 31 game
ClinkzCrystallis
Clinkz
Slardar
SlardarATF
46% · 69 games47% · 41 game
BrewmasterBOOM
Brewmaster
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
57% · 60 games50% · 98 games
Pudgeyamich
Pudge
Marci
MarciSneyking
52% · 65 games61% · 9 games
Treant ProtectorSeleri
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 72%
Series resultMOUZ 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3