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BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 1:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:0
MOUZloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 36 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 36 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Sneyking · 26 games
58%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
73%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 25 games
76%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 24 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 23 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 23 games
70%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 66 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 52 games
56%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 47 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 45 games
64%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 40 games
63%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 34 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 34 games
65%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 34 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
607 picks · 939 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
537 picks · 435 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
491 picks · 645 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
483 picks · 654 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
442 picks · 955 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 653 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 531 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
379 picks · 233 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Team Falcons
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total69% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:9
Team Falcons 59%MOUZ 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 34:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMalr1ne
49% · 281 game50% · 409 games
Storm SpiritMidOne
Storm Spirit
Ursa
UrsaSkiter
49% · 237 games48% · 464 games
Dragon KnightCrystallis
Dragon Knight
Mars
MarsATF
43% · 292 games52% · 221 game
TidehunterBOOM
Tidehunter
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionSneyking
49% · 153 games54% · 77 games
HuskarSeleri
Huskar
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
45% · 271 game62% · 63 games
Miranayamich
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 69%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1