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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 36 games
67%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 33 games
70%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 32 games
69%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 28 games
61%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 27 games
70%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 24 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 23 games
70%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 73 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 55 games
53%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 48 games
54%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 45 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 41 game
61%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 39 games
64%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 39 games
72%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 35 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
632 picks · 994 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
527 picks · 439 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
455 picks · 634 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
451 picks · 494 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
450 picks · 1065 bans
56%
Warlock
Warlock
443 picks · 281 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
425 picks · 582 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
420 picks · 505 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Team Falcons
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total58% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:14
Team Falcons 55%MOUZ 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 33:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezSkiter
49% · 143 games51% · 357 games
BeastmasterMidOne
Beastmaster
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
54% · 546 games51% · 505 games
Dragon KnightCrystallis
Dragon Knight
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalr1ne
51% · 207 games44% · 449 games
MarsBOOM
Mars
Jakiro
JakiroSneyking
53% · 794 games47% · 526 games
WarlockSeleri
Warlock
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
53% · 383 games48% · 236 games
Phoenixyamich
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct42:24
Team Falcons 55%MOUZ 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 43:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackSkiter
52% · 313 games46% · 656 games
Storm SpiritMidOne
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
54% · 452 games51% · 152 games
RazorCrystallis
Razor
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMalr1ne
55% · 596 games46% · 384 games
TidehunterBOOM
Tidehunter
Jakiro
JakiroSneyking
48% · 793 games47% · 637 games
WarlockSeleri
Warlock
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
55% · 382 games46% · 707 games
Tinyyamich
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 58%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2