BLAST Slam V · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 1:0series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 31 game
Chensignature
Sneyking · 28 games
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 26 games
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 23 games
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
Weaversignature
Skiter · 19 games
Marssignature
ATF · 18 games
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 17 games
Natus Vincere
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 25 games
Warlock
Kaori · 25 games
Disruptoroften banned
Riddys · 23 games
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 22 games
Templar Assassinsignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
Banesignature
Zayac · 18 games
Dazzleoften banned
Riddys · 17 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Niku · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
778 picks · 357 bans
Disruptor
583 picks · 589 bans
Hoodwink
569 picks · 299 bans
Jakiro
475 picks · 293 bans
Dragon Knight
474 picks · 550 bans
Tusk
468 picks · 274 bans
Mars
456 picks · 743 bans
Puck
436 picks · 1118 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 58%
Hero pool strength57% Team Falcons
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total87% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:7
Team Falcons 74%Natus Vincere 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 26:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
HuskarMalr1ne
Terrorbladegotthejuice
UnderlordATF
ViperNiku
AbaddonSkiter
Marspma
Bounty HunterCr1t-
BaneZayac
DisruptorSneyking
Naga SirenRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 87%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1