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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 0:2
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 54 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 44 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 39 games
62%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 34 games
62%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 33 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 30 games
87%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Cr1t- · 26 games
54%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 25 games
68%

Natus Vincere Junior

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 31 game
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 29 games
62%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 28 games
75%
Lich
Lich
Riddys · 26 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
gotthejuice · 25 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 25 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
pma · 24 games
63%
Lion
Lionsignature
Daze · 21 game
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
478 picks · 698 bans
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
380 picks · 754 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
378 picks · 382 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
355 picks · 209 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
343 picks · 651 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
343 picks · 612 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
316 picks · 583 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
314 picks · 412 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:30
Team Falcons 60%Natus Vincere Junior 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 40:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMalr1ne
39% · 117 games55% · 110 games
Lifestealergotthejuice
Lifestealer
Tinker
TinkerCr1t-
50% · 48 games57% · 240 games
Bristlebackpma
Bristleback
Mars
MarsATF
47% · 176 games53% · 229 games
Monkey KingNiku
Monkey King
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSkiter
44% · 356 games50% · 287 games
PhoenixRiddys
Phoenix
Jakiro
JakiroSneyking
53% · 226 games48% · 57 games
Shadow ShamanZayac
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed14:18
Team Falcons 62%Natus Vincere Junior 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 39:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSkiter
47% · 83 games51% · 148 games
Templar Assassingotthejuice
Templar Assassin
Razor
RazorATF
43% · 101 game54% · 254 games
TimbersawNiku
Timbersaw
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
50% · 307 games48% · 212 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Jakiro
JakiroSneyking
52% · 156 games47% · 70 games
Shadow ShamanZayac
Shadow Shaman
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
43% · 200 games62% · 163 games
Elder TitanRiddys
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 74%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2