ESSENCE II · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Clockwerksignature
Cr1t- · 30 games
Tinysignature
Skiter · 29 games
Hoodwink
Cr1t- · 23 games
Marsoften banned
ATF · 23 games
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 21 game
Ringmaster
Cr1t- · 21 game
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 21 game
Nigma Galaxy
Hoodwink
OmaR · 36 games
Phoenixsignature
GH · 29 games
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 21 game
Dazzle
GH · 21 game
Keeper of the Lightsignature
GH · 21 game
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 21 game
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
Shadow Shamansignature
OmaR · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
501 picks · 364 bans
Rubick
373 picks · 226 bans
Clockwerk
360 picks · 645 bans
Tiny
334 picks · 341 bans
Windranger
317 picks · 232 bans
Bane
314 picks · 321 bans
Ember Spirit
296 picks · 434 bans
Storm Spirit
293 picks · 333 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:14
Team Falcons 64%Nigma Galaxy 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 32:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SnapfireMalr1ne
Lone DruidSumaiL
Centaur WarrunnerATF
PuckLorenof
TinySkiter
NecrophosDavai
Shadow DemonCr1t-
RingmasterOmaR
EnchantressSneyking
TuskGH
Game 2prediction correct27:7
Team Falcons 65%Nigma Galaxy 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 29:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaSkiter
LifestealerSumaiL
LinaMalr1ne
NecrophosDavai
Centaur WarrunnerATF
PuckLorenof
ClockwerkCr1t-
PhoenixGH
EnchantressSneyking
HoodwinkOmaR
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 78%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2