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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 0:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 35 games
66%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 30 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 30 games
57%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 30 games
73%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 28 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 28 games
64%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
73%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Cr1t- · 21 game
57%

PARIVISION

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 24 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 20 games
80%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
9Class · 19 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No[o]ne · 18 games
56%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
No[o]ne · 18 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 17 games
41%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
41%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
679 picks · 856 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
580 picks · 597 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
499 picks · 430 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
484 picks · 337 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
426 picks · 1125 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
404 picks · 697 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
403 picks · 1030 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 625 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 46%
Hero pool strength56% Team Falcons
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total66% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:30
Team Falcons 58%PARIVISION 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 34:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaSkiter
41% · 45 games59% · 41 game
Naga SirenSatanic
Naga Siren
Viper
ViperATF
61% · 61 game44% · 67 games
LeshracNo[o]ne
Leshrac
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
46% · 124 games52% · 97 games
TidehunterSSS
Tidehunter
Venomancer
VenomancerSneyking
45% · 25 games56% · 5 games
Io9Class
Io
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritCr1t-
48% · 14 games53% · 59 games
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed12:35
Team Falcons 60%PARIVISION 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 31:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzSkiter
59% · 39 games60% · 31 game
BroodmotherSatanic
Broodmother
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMalr1ne
53% · 21 game44% · 157 games
LeshracNo[o]ne
Leshrac
Void Spirit
Void SpiritATF
50% · 90 games48% · 206 games
UnderlordSSS
Underlord
Phoenix
PhoenixSneyking
57% · 93 games54% · 58 games
Rubick9Class
Rubick
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
43% · 247 games46% · 38 games
VenomancerDukalis
Venomancer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 66%
Series resultPARIVISION 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2