BetBoom Dacha Dubai 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 3:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 3:2
PSG Questloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Lunasignature
Skiter · 16 games
Marssignature
ATF · 12 games
Weaversignature
Cr1t- · 12 games
Linasignature
Malr1ne · 11 games
Chensignature
Sneyking · 10 games
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 10 games
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 10 games
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 10 games
PSG Quest
Rubick
OmaR · 31 game
Naga Sirensignature
TA2000 · 18 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Malik · 17 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 17 games
Phoenixoften banned
Kaori · 15 games
Earthshaker
No!ob · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 13 games
Miranasignature
OmaR · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
257 picks · 428 bans
Phoenix
248 picks · 381 bans
Centaur Warrunner
246 picks · 342 bans
Tusk
216 picks · 204 bans
Muerta
204 picks · 285 bans
Nature's Prophet
201 picks · 512 bans
Dark Willow
198 picks · 98 bans
Pugna
181 picks · 324 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 67%
Hero pool strength60% Team Falcons
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total62% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:7
Team Falcons 59%PSG Quest 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 53:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverSkiter
MeepoTA2000
PangolierMalr1ne
TidehunterMalik
SlardarATF
Void SpiritNo!ob
ChenSneyking
PhoenixKaori
HoodwinkCr1t-
TechiesOmaR
Game 2prediction missed12:39
Team Falcons 57%PSG Quest 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 42:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaSkiter
Storm SpiritNo!ob
SlardarATF
WindrangerTA2000
TinyMalr1ne
TimbersawMalik
Winter WyvernSneyking
EnchantressKaori
SnapfireCr1t-
LionOmaR
Game 3prediction missed4:27
Team Falcons 58%PSG Quest 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 27:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaSkiter
LinaTA2000
SnapfireMalr1ne
Keeper of the LightNo!ob
SlardarATF
MagnusMalik
ChenSneyking
TinyOmaR
RubickCr1t-
Treant ProtectorKaori
Game 4prediction correct32:9
Team Falcons 57%PSG Quest 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 33:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierMalr1ne
WindrangerTA2000
Centaur WarrunnerATF
PuckNo!ob
WeaverSkiter
TidehunterMalik
ChenSneyking
LionOmaR
TinyCr1t-
EnchantressKaori
Game 5prediction correct40:9
Team Falcons 59%PSG Quest 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 46:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierMalr1ne
Faceless VoidTA2000
MarsATF
ViperNo!ob
AlchemistSkiter
Dark SeerMalik
Nature's ProphetSneyking
ClockwerkOmaR
Shadow DemonCr1t-
PhoenixKaori
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 62%
Series resultTeam Falcons 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5