ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 3:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 3:2
PSG Questloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Lunasignature
Skiter · 17 games
Marssignature
ATF · 17 games
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 16 games
Weaversignature
Cr1t- · 16 games
Chensignature
Sneyking · 15 games
Linasignature
Malr1ne · 14 games
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 14 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 11 games
PSG Quest
Earthshaker
No!ob · 15 games
Rubick
OmaR · 14 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
TA2000 · 13 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Kaori · 13 games
Lion
OmaR · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 11 games
Enchantressoften banned
Kaori · 10 games
Phoenixoften banned
Kaori · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
347 picks · 515 bans
Phoenix
299 picks · 438 bans
Vengeful Spirit
293 picks · 212 bans
Lion
292 picks · 257 bans
Grimstroke
264 picks · 457 bans
Magnus
262 picks · 414 bans
Nature's Prophet
256 picks · 749 bans
Pangolier
256 picks · 372 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 67%
Hero pool strength63% Team Falcons
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total66% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:8
Team Falcons 63%PSG Quest 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 27:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordSkiter
LunaTA2000
KunkkaATF
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
PuckMalr1ne
Void SpiritNo!ob
ChenSneyking
UndyingKaori
BatriderCr1t-
HoodwinkOmaR
Game 2prediction correct23:17
Team Falcons 61%PSG Quest 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 45:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
LinaTA2000
AlchemistSkiter
Primal BeastNo!ob
RazorATF
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
Crystal MaidenSneyking
EnchantressKaori
TinyCr1t-
RubickOmaR
Game 3prediction missed12:35
Team Falcons 58%PSG Quest 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 37:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeSkiter
WindrangerTA2000
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
Storm SpiritNo!ob
MagnusATF
DoomMalik
HoodwinkCr1t-
RubickOmaR
Vengeful SpiritSneyking
Treant ProtectorKaori
Game 4prediction missed16:33
Team Falcons 63%PSG Quest 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 31:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistSkiter
MeepoTA2000
HuskarMalr1ne
SnapfireNo!ob
DoomATF
Primal BeastMalik
Nature's ProphetSneyking
LionOmaR
HoodwinkCr1t-
Vengeful SpiritKaori
Game 5prediction correct40:11
Team Falcons 62%PSG Quest 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 38:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordSkiter
MeepoTA2000
DoomATF
SnapfireNo!ob
Monkey KingMalr1ne
Primal BeastMalik
HoodwinkCr1t-
PugnaKaori
Crystal MaidenSneyking
TinyOmaR
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 66%
Series resultTeam Falcons 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5