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Elite League · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PSG Questloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 37 games
84%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 29 games
83%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
73%
Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 22 games
73%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
82%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 22 games
82%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 20 games
80%

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kaori · 18 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 15 games
47%
Lion
Lionsignature
OmaR · 14 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Malik · 13 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 13 games
46%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 13 games
38%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 13 games
62%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
502 picks · 787 bans
56%
Batrider
Batrider
462 picks · 961 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
454 picks · 720 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
454 picks · 352 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
452 picks · 599 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
446 picks · 195 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
435 picks · 207 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
422 picks · 709 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 62%
Hero pool strength64% Team Falcons
Head-to-head6 – 2
Model total90% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:14
Team Falcons 77%PSG Quest 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 48:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSkiter
54% · 143 games53% · 164 games
Naga SirenTA2000
Naga Siren
Doom
DoomATF
53% · 238 games38% · 79 games
ZeusNo!ob
Zeus
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
53% · 289 games46% · 206 games
KunkkaMalik
Kunkka
Mirana
MiranaCr1t-
54% · 189 games51% · 263 games
Shadow DemonOmaR
Shadow Demon
Lion
LionSneyking
51% · 200 games48% · 347 games
EnchantressDukalis
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct28:7
Team Falcons 77%PSG Quest 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 24:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingSkiter
48% · 76 games52% · 122 games
MedusaTA2000
Medusa
Underlord
UnderlordATF
50% · 159 games45% · 311 games
DoomMalik
Doom
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalr1ne
54% · 315 games43% · 217 games
TinyNo!ob
Tiny
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenCr1t-
52% · 342 games49% · 274 games
EnchantressDukalis
Enchantress
Disruptor
DisruptorSneyking
53% · 293 games52% · 261 game
BatriderOmaR
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 90%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2