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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PSG Questloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 51 game
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 47 games
77%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 39 games
72%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 37 games
70%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 33 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 31 game
81%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 29 games
76%
Sven
Svensignature
Skiter · 29 games
76%

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 29 games
62%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
OmaR · 28 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 26 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 25 games
68%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
No!ob · 24 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
OmaR · 23 games
52%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
TA2000 · 20 games
60%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Malik · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
391 picks · 725 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
337 picks · 284 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
333 picks · 220 bans
48%
Weaver
Weaver
332 picks · 648 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
319 picks · 470 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
313 picks · 375 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
299 picks · 534 bans
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
292 picks · 346 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 41%
Hero pool strength57% Team Falcons
Head-to-head7 – 2
Model total83% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:10
Team Falcons 69%PSG Quest 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 37:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
50% · 191 game49% · 163 games
WindrangerTA2000
Windranger
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
51% · 184 games48% · 222 games
Primal BeastNo!ob
Primal Beast
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
49% · 382 games51% · 175 games
Dark SeerMalik
Dark Seer
Jakiro
JakiroCr1t-
45% · 80 games52% · 173 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Oracle
OracleSneyking
57% · 63 games50% · 167 games
SvenDukalis
Sven
Game 2prediction missed17:32
Team Falcons 70%PSG Quest 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 45:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingSkiter
52% · 81 game49% · 169 games
WeaverTA2000
Weaver
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
49% · 411 games58% · 211 games
PuckNo!ob
Puck
Slark
SlarkATF
57% · 103 games46% · 207 games
DoomMalik
Doom
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
47% · 268 games43% · 378 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
54% · 330 games45% · 228 games
SvenDukalis
Sven
Game 3prediction correct34:21
Team Falcons 72%PSG Quest 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:01:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSkiter
53% · 84 games52% · 47 games
BroodmotherTA2000
Broodmother
Doom
DoomATF
49% · 140 games48% · 111 games
BeastmasterMalik
Beastmaster
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalr1ne
61% · 181 game49% · 320 games
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Chen
ChenSneyking
57% · 70 games39% · 54 games
JakiroDukalis
Jakiro
Windranger
WindrangerCr1t-
47% · 117 games45% · 60 games
Spirit BreakerOmaR
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 83%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3