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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 56 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 45 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 38 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 35 games
89%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 31 game
58%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 29 games
55%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 28 games
61%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 27 games
78%

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 33 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 26 games
65%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 22 games
73%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jhocam · 20 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Ws · 20 games
55%
Lina
Linasignature
Mikoto · 20 games
75%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Mikoto · 20 games
70%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ws · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
502 picks · 687 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
433 picks · 703 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
421 picks · 409 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
413 picks · 319 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
372 picks · 862 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
371 picks · 963 bans
58%
Batrider
Batrider
366 picks · 424 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
366 picks · 502 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 64%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total65% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:23
Team Falcons 56%Talon Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 38:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSkiter
45% · 133 games53% · 226 games
MagnusNatsumi
Magnus
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMalr1ne
50% · 123 games53% · 191 game
PuckMikoto
Puck
Tidehunter
TidehunterATF
54% · 96 games49% · 156 games
TimbersawWs
Timbersaw
Muerta
MuertaCr1t-
45% · 228 games48% · 93 games
Night StalkerJhocam
Night Stalker
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
51% · 121 game53% · 35 games
SilencerKuku
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct25:12
Team Falcons 57%Talon Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 39:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMalr1ne
50% · 96 games53% · 285 games
GyrocopterNatsumi
Gyrocopter
Tidehunter
TidehunterSkiter
54% · 83 games45% · 199 games
Ember SpiritMikoto
Ember Spirit
Mars
MarsATF
48% · 154 games48% · 172 games
TerrorbladeWs
Terrorblade
Muerta
MuertaCr1t-
47% · 253 games57% · 16 games
Ancient ApparitionKuku
Ancient Apparition
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
60% · 180 games45% · 94 games
Night StalkerJhocam
Night Stalker
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 65%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2