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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 1:0
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Aureusloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ATF · 31 game
61%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
78%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 20 games
65%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 20 games
70%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 18 games
72%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Malr1ne · 17 games
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Sneyking · 17 games
65%
Doom
Doomoften banned
ATF · 16 games
50%

Team Aureus

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 20 games
65%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 16 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 15 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Force · 13 games
69%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Tims · 12 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Force · 11 games
73%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Yopaj · 11 games
64%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Force · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
629 picks · 314 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
545 picks · 550 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
404 picks · 1125 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
386 picks · 205 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
366 picks · 615 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
354 picks · 391 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
352 picks · 160 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
348 picks · 273 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Team Aureus
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:6
Team Falcons 77%Team Aureus 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 19:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSkiter
50% · 302 games44% · 238 games
Dragon KnightNatsumi
Dragon Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerATF
47% · 225 games47% · 177 games
WindrangerYopaj
Windranger
Huskar
HuskarMalr1ne
61% · 48 games48% · 279 games
PangolierForce
Pangolier
Ringmaster
RingmasterCr1t-
51% · 236 games45% · 132 games
HoodwinkTims
Hoodwink
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSneyking
56% · 123 games55% · 108 games
AxeSkem
Axe
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 91%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1