FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Pangoliersignature
ATF · 30 games
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
Chensignature
Sneyking · 19 games
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 19 games
Beastmastersignature
Malr1ne · 17 games
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 17 games
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 16 games
Svensignature
Skiter · 16 games
Team Liquid
Dark Willow
Boxi · 24 games
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 24 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 20 games
Shadow Shaman
Boxi · 20 games
Tusk
Boxi · 20 games
Batrideroften banned
Boxi · 19 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 19 games
Marcisignature
Boxi · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
660 picks · 321 bans
Disruptor
564 picks · 575 bans
Hoodwink
419 picks · 224 bans
Puck
408 picks · 1156 bans
Mars
380 picks · 636 bans
Tusk
359 picks · 261 bans
Pugna
356 picks · 399 bans
Queen of Pain
354 picks · 941 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 47%
Hero pool strength58% Team Falcons
Head-to-head8 – 2
Model total79% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:16
Team Falcons 67%Team Liquid 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 46:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverSkiter
SniperNisha
Centaur WarrunnerATF
DoommiCKe
HuskarMalr1ne
AxeAce
JakiroSneyking
SnapfiretOfu
Shadow DemonCr1t-
HoodwinkBoxi
Game 2prediction correct26:11
Team Falcons 67%Team Liquid 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 35:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverSkiter
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
UrsaATF
Dragon KnightNisha
Centaur WarrunnerMalr1ne
BeastmasterAce
HoodwinkCr1t-
WindrangerBoxi
JakiroSneyking
BanetOfu
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 79%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2