BLAST Slam VI · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 2:3series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:3
Team Liquidwin 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Chensignature
Sneyking · 37 games
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 36 games
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 28 games
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 27 games
Enchantress
Sneyking · 26 games
Marssignature
ATF · 26 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 24 games
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
Team Liquid
Tusk
Boxi · 33 games
Pucksignature
Nisha · 28 games
Snapfire
Boxi · 28 games
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 20 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 20 games
Batrideroften banned
Boxi · 19 games
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 19 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
611 picks · 940 bans
Tusk
516 picks · 420 bans
Centaur Warrunner
473 picks · 618 bans
Shadow Demon
427 picks · 956 bans
Dragon Knight
426 picks · 567 bans
Warlock
405 picks · 249 bans
Tiny
399 picks · 452 bans
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 662 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 61%
Hero pool strength56% Team Falcons
Head-to-head8 – 2
Model total63% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:12
Team Falcons 58%Team Liquid 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 44:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackATF
KezmiCKe
WindrangerSkiter
RazorAce
Primal BeastMalr1ne
Storm SpiritNisha
JakiroCr1t-
PhoenixtOfu
Treant ProtectorSneyking
TuskBoxi
Game 2prediction missed18:46
Team Falcons 58%Team Liquid 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 32:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal BeastMalr1ne
KezmiCKe
ClinkzSkiter
LeshracNisha
MarsATF
RazorAce
ChenSneyking
JakirotOfu
LargoCr1t-
ClockwerkBoxi
Game 3prediction missed18:35
Team Falcons 58%Team Liquid 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 34:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverSkiter
WindrangermiCKe
Primal BeastMalr1ne
RazorAce
BrewmasterATF
Storm SpiritNisha
JakiroSneyking
RubicktOfu
LionCr1t-
ClockwerkBoxi
Game 4prediction correct37:18
Team Falcons 61%Team Liquid 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 43:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzSkiter
UrsamiCKe
DoomATF
LeshracNisha
Sand KingMalr1ne
MarsAce
Treant ProtectorSneyking
JakirotOfu
RingmasterCr1t-
ClockwerkBoxi
Game 5prediction missed19:35
Team Falcons 59%Team Liquid 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand KingMalr1ne
Void SpiritNisha
WeaverSkiter
Dragon KnightmiCKe
BristlebackATF
LargoAce
WarlockSneyking
JakirotOfu
HoodwinkCr1t-
TuskBoxi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 63%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5