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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
96%4%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Revenantsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 17 games
76%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 17 games
94%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Cr1t- · 15 games
87%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 14 games
71%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 13 games
85%
Lina
Linasignature
Malr1ne · 13 games
77%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 11 games
73%

Team Revenants

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
332 picks · 495 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
286 picks · 427 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
278 picks · 240 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
269 picks · 186 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
262 picks · 452 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
251 picks · 350 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
249 picks · 726 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
245 picks · 395 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 67%
Hero pool strength64% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total96% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:10
Team Falcons 96%Team Revenants 4%
The model gave 96% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 24:14.
Game 2prediction correct22:5
Team Falcons 96%Team Revenants 4%
The model gave 96% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 14:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 96%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2