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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spiritloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 44 games
68%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 34 games
85%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 31 game
71%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 28 games
61%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 28 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 25 games
56%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 23 games
83%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 23 games
78%

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 39 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Larl · 29 games
62%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 26 games
81%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Miposhka · 25 games
48%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Malik · 23 games
74%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 22 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Miposhka · 22 games
55%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Larl · 21 game
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
490 picks · 673 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
415 picks · 490 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
359 picks · 529 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
348 picks · 183 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
340 picks · 451 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
305 picks · 593 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
303 picks · 488 bans
53%
Alchemist
Alchemist
300 picks · 634 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Team Falcons
Head-to-head5 – 5
Model total77% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:21
Team Falcons 65%Team Spirit 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 41:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingSkiter
56% · 12 games56% · 58 games
SlarkSatanic
Slark
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
48% · 117 games49% · 130 games
Monkey KingLarl
Monkey King
Sniper
SniperMalr1ne
48% · 111 games54% · 212 games
Primal BeastMalik
Primal Beast
Phoenix
PhoenixSneyking
49% · 235 games51% · 259 games
HoodwinkMiposhka
Hoodwink
Batrider
BatriderCr1t-
47% · 387 games50% · 203 games
Lionrue
Lion
Game 2prediction correct27:16
Team Falcons 65%Team Spirit 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 43:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
51% · 278 games49% · 188 games
MedusaSatanic
Medusa
Doom
DoomATF
51% · 290 games55% · 148 games
Monkey KingLarl
Monkey King
Batrider
BatriderMalr1ne
51% · 376 games44% · 283 games
MarsMalik
Mars
Lina
LinaCr1t-
44% · 95 games51% · 147 games
Pugnarue
Pugna
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiSneyking
51% · 72 games51% · 345 games
HoodwinkMiposhka
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 77%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2