?
arrow_backBack to match
BLAST Slam III · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spiritloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 42 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 39 games
46%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 31 game
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 28 games
46%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
63%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
63%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Skiter · 23 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Sneyking · 20 games
55%

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 36 games
72%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 30 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 30 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 28 games
79%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 22 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 22 games
68%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Yatoro · 22 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 19 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
445 picks · 431 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
434 picks · 627 bans
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
329 picks · 665 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
307 picks · 571 bans
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
305 picks · 139 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
302 picks · 173 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
291 picks · 475 bans
49%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
289 picks · 584 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 65%
Hero pool strength58% Team Spirit
Head-to-head8 – 8
Model total65% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:20
Team Falcons 39%Team Spirit 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 45:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSkiter
45% · 225 games51% · 282 games
Phantom AssassinYatoro
Phantom Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMalr1ne
49% · 322 games56% · 366 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierATF
43% · 374 games54% · 108 games
SlardarCollapse
Slardar
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterCr1t-
48% · 116 games51% · 363 games
Muertarue
Muerta
Jakiro
JakiroSneyking
51% · 311 games52% · 229 games
WarlockMiposhka
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed42:33
Team Falcons 40%Team Spirit 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:14:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
50% · 160 games52% · 131 game
TerrorbladeYatoro
Terrorblade
Sven
SvenSkiter
46% · 166 games52% · 86 games
EarthshakerLarl
Earthshaker
Monkey King
Monkey KingMalr1ne
54% · 230 games50% · 141 game
MarsCollapse
Mars
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
55% · 107 games48% · 181 game
Muertarue
Muerta
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanCr1t-
48% · 85 games46% · 209 games
JakiroMiposhka
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 65%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2